Local advertising is heading into a slowdown. After a boost from political campaigns, BIA Advisory Services now expects local ad spending to stay flat next year, with no growth compared to this year. The main reason: political ad dollars that temporarily lifted the market are about to disappear.
This year’s increase in local ad spend came almost entirely from midterm election campaigns, which put more money into television than BIA had predicted earlier. Senan Mele, Vice President of Forecasting and Data Analysis at BIA, said most of this unexpected spending went to TV-both traditional and streaming-as campaigns tried to reach large audiences and collect leads. Law firms also increased their TV ad budgets, spending $9.3 billion, a 4.6% rise from earlier forecasts, even as media costs climbed and the market became more fragmented.
BIA Advisory Services raised its 2026 U.S. local advertising forecast to $186.1 billion, nearly 9% above 2025 levels, largely due to a surge in political ad spending.
But once the election cycle ends, the extra money dries up. BIA’s latest forecast is blunt: without political ads, local ad spending will barely move. Excluding political advertising, BIA expects local ad volume to grow just 0.2% this year. The firm did not release a non-political estimate for next year, a sign of how little confidence there is in organic growth. Meanwhile, total U.S. ad spending is expected to rise 4.4% next year, leaving local markets well behind the national trend.
For publishers, broadcasters, and digital operators who depend on local ad revenue, this means tougher competition and tighter margins ahead. The temporary lift from political campaigns has hidden deeper stagnation, and as those dollars vanish, local outlets will have to work harder for every non-political ad. The legal sector’s steady demand for TV ads is one of the few bright spots, but it won’t make up for the broader slowdown.
Reuters reported that by September 11, 2026, political ad spending in the 2025-2026 cycle had already surpassed $6 billion, with major new reservations focused on battleground House and Senate races.
Cycles like this aren’t new, but the current market is especially tough. Higher media costs, fragmented audiences, and the steady shift of ad dollars to national and digital platforms are squeezing local players. As reported earlier, some local publishers are experimenting with AI and new revenue streams to stay afloat, but the outlook is bleak for those relying on traditional ad models.
Local ad markets now face a reckoning. Dependence on political windfalls has left many outlets exposed, and the lack of organic growth points to deeper problems. Unless local publishers can find new revenue sources and adapt to a fragmented, high-cost media environment, the next year will likely bring more stagnation and cutbacks than recovery.
According to a TVTechnology analysis, BIA now projects $9.7 billion in local political spending for 2026, up from $8.4 billion in its April forecast. Most of this increase is expected to go to video, especially TV-both over-the-air and streaming.
