Retail marketers are moving early this year. 55% plan to increase their holiday ad budgets, up from 44% last year. They want to grab shoppers' attention before the holiday rush and outpace rivals as the fight for holiday spending heats up.
According to Sensormatic Solutions, retailers are already planning around the busiest holiday shopping days, with key traffic peaks forecasted before the season even begins.
Timing matters. 77% of marketers expect their holiday campaigns to be live by November. October is now the top month for launches, with 34% of campaigns set to start then. Brands want to reach shoppers before the holiday ad noise peaks. Nearly one in five consumers-18.75%-now plan to start holiday shopping at the very start of the season. This shift explains why brands are launching ads earlier and why the scramble for early demand is getting tougher.
For digital publishers and content creators, bigger retail ad budgets mean fiercer competition for ad space and likely higher CPMs as the season nears. This pattern matches what’s happening in other sectors, where ad spending can swing sharply. As reported earlier, local ad growth has slowed without political spending, showing how sector surges can reshape the ad market.
AdRoll reported that global digital ad spend from August 2025 to July 2026 reached approximately $348 billion, marking a 19% year-over-year increase. For the fourth quarter alone, digital ad expenditures are projected to exceed $110 billion, highlighting the scale of the holiday season's impact on the advertising market.
Industry data shows the holiday ad market is heading into the season with digital inventory costs way down. A recent AdRoll report found prospecting campaign CPMs dropped 45% year-over-year, and retargeting CPMs fell 29.1% between July 1 and September 8, 2026. These lower costs may push brands to lock in inventory sooner, adding fuel to the trend of earlier campaign launches.
Promotions are still the main reason people buy during the holidays, beating out gift lists, family tips, and brand reputation, according to the Ibotta Performance Network’s 2026 Holiday Outlook Report. This focus on deals helps explain why brands are pushing ads earlier, hoping to sway shoppers as soon as they start thinking about holiday buys.
