A wave of mega-IPOs is coming, but most startups may not benefit directly. Instead, stronger M&A activity could become the main exit route. Find out how these public listings could change the landscape.
SpaceX is preparing for a historic debut on the Nasdaq, pricing shares at $135 and aiming to raise $75 billion through the sale of 555.6 million shares. This move values the company at $1.77 trillion, making it the largest public offering ever recorded.
Anthropic confidentially filed for its own IPO on June 1, targeting a $965 billion valuation. OpenAI followed suit on June 8, with plans for a fall listing. After four years of limited venture liquidity, many see these filings as a sign that the IPO window has reopened for tech companies.
However, the scale and concentration of these offerings suggest a different reality. SpaceX alone is set to raise more than the entire U.S. IPO market did in 2025, which totaled $47.4 billion. According to Bloomberg, retail investors may need to sell existing assets, such as Tesla shares or Bitcoin, to participate in the SpaceX IPO. The company is reserving up to 30% of the deal—about $22.5 billion—for retail buyers. Meanwhile, the crypto IPO pipeline has stalled as capital shifts toward artificial intelligence. These three companies could represent the bulk of the 2026 IPO class.
This points to a concentration of capital and attention, rather than a broad market reopening. Liquidity will primarily benefit a small group of funds and pre-IPO shareholders, while most startups remain on the sidelines. For early-stage founders, the SpaceX IPO does little to change their immediate prospects.
The real shift may come through mergers and acquisitions. Once public, SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic will become some of the world's best-capitalized acquirers, equipped with liquid stock for dealmaking. OpenAI has already completed about six acquisitions this year, nearly matching its total for 2025. AI-related M&A activity rose roughly 90% year over year in the first quarter, according to CB Insights. Historically, most venture-backed exits have come through acquisitions, not IPOs, and these listings are likely to deepen the pool of potential buyers.
For founders, this means focusing on building companies that could become strategic targets for newly public AI giants—whether by owning critical workflows, proprietary data, or infrastructure that these platforms need. At the seed stage, the most likely exit remains a significant acquisition, and the number of buyers able to write large checks is set to grow.
Investors should be cautious not to mistake this concentration event for a true market reopening. The liquidity and long-awaited distributions will be limited to a narrow set of names. For most venture portfolios, M&A remains the primary path to liquidity, making the health of that market more important than whether SpaceX stock rises on its first day.
The real test will come this fall. If retail demand holds and the next wave of IPOs performs well, it could signal a broader reopening. Until then, the actions of SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic as newly public companies—and how they deploy their capital—will have the greatest impact on the wider startup ecosystem.
SpaceX, founded in 2002 by Elon Musk, has grown into a global leader in commercial spaceflight and satellite deployment. As of 2026, the company employs over 13,000 people and has launched more than 200 missions. Its Starlink satellite internet service has millions of subscribers worldwide, contributing significantly to its valuation and revenue growth.
